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Dr. Andrew Black: "Hard Brexit" - International Trade and the WTO Scenario

APR 29. 2017  nyomtatási kép

Dr. Andrew Black: "Hard Brexit" - International Trade and the WTO Scenario 

At The Federal Trust for Education & Research (May 2017) 

Executive Summary

This report looks at the possible consequences of a hard Brexit, following an unsuccessful conclusion of Article 50 negotiations between Britain and the European Union. On its departure from the EU, Britain would presumably adopt the EU’s current “Schedule of Concessions" agreed at the World Trade Organization. This would involve imposing tariffs by the EU on UK exports, and the UK will in turn impose tariffs on imports from the EU. This report provides estimates of what these “tariff" costs are likely to be. These are then used to examine the “ripple" effects through the rest of the economy using Input-Output analysis. This is a powerful analytical approach well suited to exploring the sector impacts of economic policy changes.

The results of four different Brexit related scenarios are shown below. The scenarios start out narrowly by just considering trade impacts, and are then extended to include broader changes in demand. 

The whole article is HERE!


About the Author:

Dr. Andrew Black, Digit Ltd, is a Senior Research Fellow at the Global Policy InstituteLondon. He is also a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Advanced Studies, Kőszeg, Hungary